Beef Third World Countries Cattle Farming

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3.three Livestock bolt

3.3.1 Past and nowadays

Livestock, a major gene in the growth of globe agriculture. The world food economy is existence increasingly driven by the shift of diets and nutrient consumption patterns towards livestock products. Some utilise the term«food revolution» to refer to these trends (Delgado et al., 1999). In the developing countries, where almost all world population increases take place, consumption of meat has been growing at 5-half-dozen pct p.a. and that of milk and dairy products at iii.four-3.viii percent p.a. in the concluding few decades. Amass agricultural output is being affected by these trends, not only through the growth of livestock production proper, only likewise through the linkages of livestock production to the crop sector which supplies the feeding stuffs (mainly cereals and oilseeds), and benefits from the important ingather-livestock synergies prevailing in mixed farming systems (de Haan et al., 1998).

On the negative side, and in association with policy distortions or marketplace failures, there are environmental implications associated with the expansion of livestock production. For example, through the expansion of land for livestock development, livestock sector growth has been a prime force in deforestation in some countries such as Brazil, and in overgrazing in other countries. Intensive livestock operations on an industrial scale, generally in the industrial countries just increasingly in the developing ones, are a major source of environmental problems through the product of point-source pollution (effluents, etc.).^xx In parallel, growth in the ruminant sector contributes to greenhouse gas concentrations in the temper through methane emissions and nitrous oxide from the waste of grazing animals (see Capacity 12 and 13).

Important exceptions and qualifications. The forcefulness of the livestock sector as the major driving forcefulness of global agriculture can be easily exaggerated. Many developing countries and regions, where the demand to increase protein consumption is the greatest, are not participating in the procedure. In 40 developing countries, among those covered individually in this study, per capita consumption of meat was lower in the mid-1990s than x years before. In this category are the regions of sub-Saharan Africa, with very low consumption per capita reflecting quasi-perennial economic stagnation. Too the Near Eastward/North Africa, where the rapid progress of the menses to the late 1980s (oil boom) was interrupted and slightly reversed in the subsequent years, helped by the plummet of consumption in Iraq. Similar considerations apply to developments in per capita consumption of milk and dairy products (Table 3.9). In the great bulk of countries failing to participate in the upsurge of the livestock products consumption, the reason has merely been lack of development and income growth (including failures to develop agronomics and production of these products) that would translate their considerable latent need for what are withal luxury items into effective need. Cultural and religious factors have also stood in the way of wider improvidence of consumption of meat in general in some countries (such equally India) or of particular meats (such equally beef in India and pork in Muslim countries).

Table iii.9: Milk and dairy products, production and use: past and projected
	1964/66	1974/76	1984/86	1994/96	1997/99	2015	2030
	Nutrient per capita (kg, whole milk equivalent)
World	74	75	78	77	78	83	90
Developing	28	30	37	42	45	55	66
Sub-Saharan Africa	28	28	32	29	29	31	34
Near Eastward/N Africa	69	72	83	71	72	81	90
Latin America and the Caribbean area	80	93	94	106	110	125	140
Due south Asia	37	38	51	62	68	88	107
East Asia	4	4	6	x	10	14	18
Industrial countries	186	191	212	212	212	217	221
Transition economies	157	192	181	155	159	169	179
Memo item
Earth excl. transition economies	65	64	69	71	72	78	85
	'000 tonnes	Growth rates, % p.a.
	1997/99	1969-99	1979-99	1989-99	1992-99	1997/99-2015	2015-thirty
	Aggregate consumption (all uses, whole milk equivalent)
Globe	559399	i.iii	0.9	0.v	ane.one	ane.4	i.3
Developing	239068	3.vi	3.iv	3.8	4.0	two.7	2.two
Sub-Saharan Africa	18134	ii.7	1.seven	ii.1	2.8	2.nine	2.vii
Near East/North Africa	32979	2.half-dozen	one.vi	2.0	2.6	2.4	2.two
Latin America and the Caribbean area	61954	ii.7	2.6	3.5	3.5	two.0	ane.vii
South Asia	104552	4.5	4.8	four.8	v.0	3.ane	2.4
East asia	21450	v.8	5.half dozen	4.9	four.1	2.7	ii.2
Industrial countries	225797	0.7	0.iii	0.three	0.five	0.4	0.three
Transition economies	94534	-0.4	-ane.7	-4.viii	-3.6	0.one	0.1
Memo item
World excl. transition economies	464865	one.9	i.7	2.0	2.2	1.7	1.5
	Production (whole milk equivalent)
Globe	561729	1.3	0.9	0.vi	one.2	1.4	one.3
Developing	219317	3.6	3.8	4.ane	4.iii	two.vii	2.3
Sub-Saharan Africa	15752	2.7	2.iii	ane.nine	2.5	3.0	two.8
Near East/N Africa	28 186	ii.three	2.two	3.1	three.iv	ii.2	2.1
Latin America and the Caribbean	56551	2.vi	ii.8	iii.9	iv.1	2.ane	1.8
South Asia	103748	4.5	4.9	iv.9	5.0	3.i	ii.4
East Asia	15081	vi.9	6.nine	4.five	4.4	2.ix	2.2
Industrial countries	245766	0.seven	0.3	0.5	0.8	0.5	0.4
Transition economies	96647	-0.iii	-1.6	-four.half-dozen	-iii.7	0.2	0.2
Memo item
Earth excl. transition economies	465083	1.eight	1.7	2.1	2.4	1.7	1.5

The second major factor limiting the growth of globe meat consumption is the fact that such consumption is heavily and disproportionately full-bodied in the industrial countries. They business relationship for 15 percent of earth population but for 37 percent of world meat consumption and 40 percentage of that of milk. Their boilerplate per capita consumption is fairly loftier - that of meat is 88 kg compared with 25 kg in developing countries. This leaves rather limited scope for further increases in their per capita consumption, while their population grows very slowly at 0.6 percent p.a. currently and 0.4 percent p.a. in the coming two decades. These characteristics of the industrial countries have meant that a adept part of world need has been growing just slowly. The aggregate meat consumption of the industrial countries grew at i.3 percentage p.a. in the terminal ten years (0.three pct p.a. for milk), compared with 6.1 percent (3.8 percent for milk) in developing countries. This slow growth in the industrial countries has partly offset the accelerating growth in several developing countries that accept been rapidly emerging every bit major meat consumers, such as China, Brazil and the Republic of Korea. The net effect of these contrasting trends has been a deceleration in the growth of world average per capita consumption of meat, going from 24 kg in the mid-1960s to 36 kg at present (Tabular array iii.10). This deceleration is clearly seen in the growth rates of world aggregate consumption of meat (Table 3.11). The deceleration has been fifty-fifty more pronounced in the example of milk (Table 3.9), mostly considering of developments in the transition economies (see below).

Earth averages conceal as much as they reveal. In the case of meat the strong growth in production and implied credible consumption of pig meat in Prc in the 1980s and 1990s (which many observers believe to be grossly overstated in the country'southward statistics),²¹ has shifted world meat consumption averages upwards rather significantly, from 30.7 kg in the mid-1980s to 36.4 kg at nowadays. Without China, the boilerplate for the rest of the earth would have actually stagnated in the same menstruum (see memo detail in Table 3.10). Once more, this stagnation reflects the other boggling effect of the 1990s, the collapse of consumption in the transition economies which went from 73 kg in the pre-reform menses (belatedly 1980s, when it had been boosted past heavy subsidies) to an estimated 46 kg in 1997/99. Excluding also the transition economies and the downward bias they impart to world totals, the per capita meat consumption in the rest of the world has been growing at a much slower, only ever decelerating, pace: by 2.5 kg in the first decade (mid-1960s to mid-1970s), and by i.vi kg in the second and third decades (see memo item in Table 3.x). Meat sector trends in the developing countries equally a whole accept been decisively influenced not just by Red china's rapid growth in the final ii decades, but too by a like operation in Brazil (from 32 kg in the mid-1970s to 71 kg at nowadays). Including these two countries, the per capita meat consumption in the developing countries went over the same menstruum from 11.4 to 25.v kg. Excluding them, it went from xi kg to only 15.5 kg (Table 3.10).

Table 3.10: Food consumption of meat
	1964/66	1974/76	1984/86	1994/96	1997/99	2015	2030
	kg per capita, carcass weight equivalent
World	24.2	27.iv	xxx.vii	34.6	36.4	41.3	45.3
Developing countries	10.2	11.4	15.5	22.7	25.five	31.six	36.seven
excl. China	11.0	12.one	14.five	17.5	eighteen.2	22.7	28.0
excl. China and Brazil	10.1	11.0	xiii.1	fourteen.9	15.5	19.eight	25.1
Sub-Saharan Africa	9.nine	9.6	ten.2	9.3	9.4	10.9	13.four
Most East/Northward Africa	11.9	xiii.8	20.4	19.7	21.ii	28.half-dozen	35.0
Latin America and the Caribbean	31.7	35.half-dozen	39.7	50.1	53.8	65.iii	76.6
excl. Brazil	34.i	37.5	39.six	42.four	45.4	56.four	67.7
South asia	3.9	3.9	4.four	five.4	5.3	7.6	11.7
East Asia	viii.7	10.0	16.9	31.7	37.seven	50.0	58.v
excl. China	9.4	10.9	14.seven	21.9	22.7	31.0	xl.9
Industrial countries	61.5	73.5	80.7	86.2	88.2	95.vii	100.1
Transition countries	42.five	60.0	65.eight	50.5	46.2	53.8	60.7
Memo item
World excl. Red china	28.5	32.vi	34.3	34.1	34.2	36.ix	xl.3
World excl. China and transition countries	26.5	29.0	30.vi	32.4	33.0	35.6	39.1
	Meat consumption past type (kg per capita, carcass weight equivalent)
Globe
Bovine meat	10.0	11	10.5	9.8	9.8	ten.ane	10.6
Ovine and caprine meat	one.8	1.half-dozen	1.vii	1.8	1.8	2.ane	two.4
Hog meat	9.i	10.2	12.one	13.7	14.six	fifteen.3	15.1
excl. Cathay	9.7	10.8	xi.3	x.4	10.three	ix.9	9.7
Poultry meat	3.two	4.6	6.4	9.3	10.ii	13.viii	17.2
Developing countries
Bovine meat	4.2	4.3	4.viii	5.7	6.ane	7.1	eight.1
Ovine and caprine meat	1.two	1.1	i.3	ane.6	1.7	2.0	2.4
Pig meat	3.six	four.1	six.4	9.half dozen	10.8	12	12.2
excl. Cathay	ii.1	2.iv	2.8	3.3	three.4	4.0	four.7
Poultry meat	1.two	1.8	2.nine	5.viii	6.9	10.5	14.0
excl. China and Brazil	1.2	1.ix	3.2	4.8	5.2	eight.1	eleven.6

For milk and dairy products, there has been no«Mainland china effect» on world totals (given the modest weight of these products in China'south food consumption), simply a very potent negative ane on business relationship of the transition economies, leading to a sharp slowdown in the growth charge per unit of world production and consumption. Without them, there has been no deceleration in world production and consumption (Table 3.9, memo items).

In conclusion, the small and decelerating growth in world per capita consumption of meat has been taking place for a wide multifariousness of reasons. For the loftier-income countries, the reasons include the most saturation of consumption (e.g. in the Eu and Commonwealth of australia), policies of high domestic meat prices and/or preference for fish (Japan and Norway), and health and food safety reasons everywhere. Still, past far the most of import reasons have been the above-mentioned failure of many low-income countries to raise incomes and create effective demand, as well equally the cultural and religious factors affecting the growth of meat consumption in some major countries.

Rapid growth of the poultry sector. Mayhap the perception of revolutionary change in the meat sector reflects the extraordinary performance of world product and consumption of poultry meat. Its share in world meat production increased from thirteen percent in the mid-1960s to 28 percent currently. Per capita consumption increased more than threefold over the same catamenia. That of pork as well increased from ix.ane kg to xiv.six kg (China's statistics helping, but from 9.vii kg to only x.3 kg for the world without China, Tabular array 3.ten). In contrast, per capita consumption of ruminant meat (from cattle, sheep and goats) really declined a little. The nigh radical shifts in consumption in favour of poultry meat took place in countries that were the traditional producers, and often major exporters, of bovine meat: Latin America, North America and Oceania (accompanied in the latter 2 by deep cuts in the consumption of beef), too equally in the mutton-eating region of the Near East/North Africa. Pregnant increases in beefiness consumption were rare. They occurred in the Republic of Korea, Japan, Malaysia, Kuwait, Saudi arabia, Mexico and Taiwan Province of China (all of them somehow linked to increased beef imports, often the result of more liberal merchandise policies), while Brazil is an example of fast growth in both production and consumption of beef.

Table three.11: Meat, amass product and demand: past and projected
		Product						Consumption
	1997/99	1969 -1999	1979 -1999	1989 -1999	1997/99 -2015	2015 -2030	1997/99	1969 -1999	1979 -1999	1989 -1999	1997/99 -2015	2015 -2030
	'000 tonnes	Growth rates, % p.a.					'000 tonnes	Growth rates, % p.a.
Earth
Bovine	58682	one.4	1.2	0.8	1.4	one.2	57888	1.4	1.2	0.7	1.4	1.2
Ovine	10825	1.9	2.2	i.4	two.1	one.8	10706	1.nine	two.2	1.4	2.1	1.8
Squealer meat	86541	3.2	two.nine	ii.seven	one.iv	0.eight	86392	three.2	2.ix	2.7	one.4	0.8
Poultry meat	61849	5.2	5.1	v.four	2.9	two.four	60809	5.2	5.0	5.2	2.9	2.4
Total meat	217898	2.ix	2.8	2.7	1.ix	ane.5	215795	2.9	ii.8	2.7	i.9	i.v
Developing countries
Bovine	27981	three.0	3.four	3.8	two.3	two.0	28074	iii.4	3.5	4.i	2.3	2.0
Ovine	7360	3.iv	3.nine	three.7	2.v	two.1	7625	3.five	iii.viii	3.vii	2.7	ii.2
Pig meat	49348	six.one	6	v.vii	ii.0	1.ii	49522	6.1	6.0	5.viii	2.one	1.2
excl. China	10892	3.7	3.3	3.4	2.7	ii.4	11393	3.6	3.2	iii.vii	2.vii	two.4
Poultry meat	31250	seven.9	8.three	ix.4	3.8	3.1	31920	vii.8	viii.0	9.4	iii.9	3.1
Total meat	115938	v.2	5.v	five.9	2.7	2.one	117141	5.3	5.half-dozen	6.one	ii.7	2.1
excl. China	59896	3.8	3.viii	3.9	3.0	2.7	61591	four.0	three.8	4.ane	three.0	2.vii
excl. Communist china and Brazil	47122	3.v	3.4	iii.three	three.one	2.9	49845	3.eight	3.four	3.half dozen	3.ii	ii.ix
Full meat past region
Sub-Saharan Africa	5320	two.three	2.0	ii.ii	three.3	three.five	5408	2.6	2.1	two.one	3.iv	3.7
Nearly East/Northward Africa	6956	four.4	4.4	iii.8	3.6	ii.nine	8164	iv.7	3.3	3.3	3.6	2.nine
Latin Americana and the Caribbean area	27954	3.5	3.4	4.5	ii.6	ii.1	27296	three.8	3.7	iv.8	2.4	2.0
excl. Brazil	15180	ii.5	2.two	3.1	2.vii	two.three	15551	iii.0	2.6	4.0	two.vi	2.2
Southern asia	6974	3.7	3.9	ii.8	3.vi	3.9	6801	3.half dozen	3.8	2.7	3.8	4.0
Due east Asia	68734	vii.1	7.half-dozen	7.6	2.4	i.6	69472	7.1	7.7	7.8	2.5	1.6
excl. China	12692	v.1	5.1	4.1	three.0	2.viii	13923	five.i	5.1	four.6	iii.0	two.7
Memo items
World livestock production (meat, milk, eggs)1		2.ii	two.1	ii.0	one.7	1.5
World cereal feed demand (million tonnes)	657	1.three	0.6	0.vi	ane.9	ane.5
Population (1000000)
World							5878	i.vii	1.half-dozen	1.five	i.2	0.9
Developing countries							4572	2.0	i.ix	ane.7	1.four	1.ane
excl. People's republic of china							3340	2.3	2.two	2.0	1.7	1.iii
excl. Cathay and Brazil							3174	ii.3	2.2	2.one	1.7	ane.three
ane Growth rates from aggregate production derived by valuing all products at 1989/91 international prices.

Buoyancy of meat trade in recent years. The rapid growth in consumption of several countries was supported by even faster growth in merchandise. Some desperate changes occurred in the sources of exports and destination of imports, specially in the terminal ten years or and then. For case, Nippon increased per capita meat consumption from 32.vi kg in 1984/86 to 41.5 kg in 1997/99, while its cyberspace imports quadrupled and cocky-sufficiency fell from 84 to 56 per centum. At the global level, trade (world exports, including the meat equivalent of live animal exports) increased from nine.4 percent of world consumption in the mid-1980s to 12.7 percent in 1997/99, with poultry increasing from 12.2 to 16.iv percent and beefiness from vi.3 to 13.9 percent (Tabular array 3.12). The major actors in this expansion of the meat trade are shown in Table 3.13. Japan tops the list of importers. Recent surges in the poultry meat (and to a lesser extent hog meat) imports of the countries of the old Soviet Union (overwhelmingly the Russia), put this group of countries second in the league of importers, with its net imports rivalling those of Japan. On the export side, the combined exports of beefiness and mutton of Australia and New Zealand put them at the top of globe meat exporters. Still, the really extraordinary development of the 1990s has been the turnaround of the United States from a sizeable net importer of meat to a sizeable net exporter, a result reflecting its failing net imports of beef and pig meat and skyrocketing exports of poultry meat. In a sense, although the policies are different, the United States is replicating the earlier feel of the Eu, which turned from a big net importer of meat upwards to the late 1970s to a large and growing internet exporter.

Table iii.12: World exports of livestock products and percentage of world consumption
	1964/66	1974/76	1984/86	1997/99
Total meat
Exports ('000 tonnes)	5996	8869	14011	27440
% of consumption	seven.4	7.9	9.4	12.vii
Bovine
Exports ('000 tonnes)	3134	4626	6225	9505
% of consumption	9.4	10.3	12.two	16.iv
Pig meat
Exports ('000 tonnes)	1734	2522	4665	8270
% of consumption	5.seven	six.0	vii.ix	9.6
Poultry meat
Exports ('000 tonnes)	436	887	1973	8465
% of consumption	4.0	4.7	6.3	13.ix
Ovine
Exports ('000 tonnes)	691	835	1148	1200
% of consumption	11.i	12.6	14.i	eleven.2
Milk and dairy (liquid milk equivalent)
Exports ('000 tonnes)	21606	31769	57004	71364
% of consumption	6.0	7.6	xi.i	12.8
Notation: Meat exports include meat equivalent of live animal exports.

Table three.xiii: Cyberspace trade positions of the major importers and exporters of livestock products ('000 tonnes)
	Major meat importers					Major meat exporters
	1964/66	1974/76	1984/86	1997/99		1964/66	1974/76	1984/86	1997/99
Japan					The states
Beefiness	-12	-85	-221	-867	Beef	-563	-887	-854	-475
Mutton	-69	-119	-78	-34	Sus scrofa meat	-116	-125	-493	-159
Pig meat	-ane	-118	-214	-862	Poultry meat	101	100	247	2548
Poultry meat	-ix	-28	-130	-666	Full meat	-602	-916	-1109	1895
Total meat	-91	-350	-643	-2430	Milk/dairy products1	2547	-2040	-719	-2909
Milk/dairy products1	-847	-1351	-2129	-2137	EU-15
Onetime Soviet Matrimony					Beef	-879	-220	552	504
Beef	-101	-407	-470	-704	Mutton	-377	-290	-233	-219
Pig meat	-four	-iv	-333	-694	Pig meat	-46	-17	476	1243
Poultry meat	-15	-61	-143	-956	Poultry meat	-79	59	253	915
Full meat	-95	-489	-1036	-2366	Total meat	-1381	-468	1048	2444
Milk/dairy products1	-79	70	-502	529	Milk/dairy productsi	-396	5846	11821	10408
United mexican states					Australia and New Zealand
Beef	106	44	32	-141	Beefiness	558	989	918	1959
Sus scrofa meat	0	1	-1	-112	Mutton	469	524	713	716
Poultry meat	0	-1	-17	-297	Total meat	1033	1523	1637	2681
Total meat	105	41	7	-586	Milk/dairy products1	4729	5584	7764	13302
Milk/dairy productsane	-254	-684	-1951	-2231	Brazil
South korea
Beef	0	0	-13	-181	Beef	57	83	263	302
Pig meat	1	6	0	-5	Pig meat	1	6	-6	113
Poultry meat	0	0	0	-40	Poultry meat	0	seven	266	621
Total meat	0	-i	-17	-231	Full meat	58	97	518	1028
Milk/dairy productsone	-68	-30	-67	-205	Milk/dairy productsone	-230	-224	-1044	-1913
Saudi Arabia					Argentina
Beef	-3	-ten	-70	-52	Beef	583	348	280	376
Mutton	-6	-half dozen	-47	-89	Full meat	620	380	282	267
Poultry meat	-3	-47	-169	-292	Milk/dairy products1	59	444	36	1217
Total meat	-12	-62	-286	-433	Eastern Europe
Milk/dairy products1	-62	-213	-1169	-877	Beef	217	327	310	78
					Mutton	17	51	74	24
					Pig meat	211	287	398	215
					Poultry meat	59	169	287	38
					Total meat	504	833	1069	355
					Milk/dairy products1	214	828	2388	1683
Note: Data include the meat equivalent of merchandise in live animals. 1 In liquid milk equivalent (excludes butter).

The developing countries did non participate as much as the adult countries in this buoyancy of the world meat trade, although there accept been some notable exceptions on both the import and the export side. In poultry meat, Brazil and Thailand became pregnant exporters, while United mexican states became a large importer together with the more traditional importers of the Most East region (Kingdom of saudi arabia, Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates) and Hong Kong SAR. In pig meat, the largest developing internet exporter continued to be Cathay (mainland, including trade in alive animals), although this has declined in recent years. China was rivalled in contempo years by growing net exports from Brazil. Taiwan Province of China became a major exporter (more often than not to Japan) in the decade to the mid-1990s before turning into a net importer after 1997²² following the outbreak of human foot-and-mouth affliction (Fuller, Fabiosa and Premakumar, 1997).

On the import side, Hong Kong SAR has continued to be the predominant developing importer, while Mexico and Argentine republic became fast-growing internet importers of pig meat in contempo years. Overall, the pig meat trade has not been buoyant in the developing countries, an issue that has partly reflected the lack of consumption in the major meat importers of the About East/North Africa region. In bovine meat, Republic of india joined the more traditional developing exporters of Southward America as a significant exporter (mostly buffalo meat). The South korea became the largest developing internet importer, surpassing Egypt. Several other developing countries became significant importers of bovine meat in recent years, including some countries of Southeast Asia (the Philippines, Malaysia and Indonesia) as well as Republic of chile. Almost recently, Mexico turned from net exporter to net importer of beef (including the meat equivalent of trade in live animals - on this latter point, encounter USDA, 2001a). Finally, merely a few of the traditional importers of the Almost East/North Africa region (Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Kuwait) continued to be meaning net importers of mutton (including alive animals), just the imports of other countries collapsed (the Islamic Commonwealth of Iran, Republic of iraq and the Libyan Arab Jamahiriya) then that cyberspace imports of the region as a whole declined.

Slow growth in the dairy trade. In contrast to the buoyancy of the meat trade in contempo years, trade in dairy products virtually stagnated. At that place was no growth in internet imports of the developing countries. Increases in East Asia and modest ones in Latin America just compensated for declines in the other regions. At that place was no boost from increased imports on the part of the transition economies equally was the example with meat. On the contrary, the former Soviet Matrimony turned from cyberspace importer to net exporter. The decline of production of subsidized surpluses and the associated pass up in nutrient help shipments on the side of the major exporters were an integral part of these trade outcomes.

Growth of livestock output achieved with small-scale increases in the feed use of cereals. We referred earlier to the importance of the livestock sector in creating demand for grains and oilseeds. Feed demand for cereals is oft considered as the dynamic element that weather the growth of the cereal sector. Occasionally, such use of cereals is viewed as a threat to food security, allegedly considering information technology«subtracts» cereal supplies (or the resources going into their production) that would otherwise be available to food-insecure countries and population groups. Nosotros accept argued elsewhere that this way of viewing things is not entirely appropriate, although, where economies are closed to merchandise, negative effects on nutrient supplies available to food-insecure population groups tin exist produced (Alexandratos, 1995).

Estimates put the total feed apply of cereals at 657 million tonnes, or 35 percent of globe total cereal use. Demand for feed in recent years has been a much less dynamic component of aggregate need for cereals than usually believed. The main reasons for these developments in the 1990s were discussed in the preceding section on cereals: the collapse of the livestock sector in the transition economies and high policy prices for cereals in the European union that favoured apply of non-cereal feedstuffs (come across likewise the discussion on cassava in Section 3.5 beneath). An additional gene that slowed down the growth of cereal use as feed has been the shift of meat production away from beef and towards poultry meat and pork, particularly in the industrial countries, the major users of cereals for feed. Pigs and poultry are much more efficient converters of feed to meat than cattle (run into Smil, 2000, Chapter 5). Earth totals take been decisively influenced by developments in the United States where the shift was most pronounced (poultry now accounts for 44 pct of total meat output, up from thirty pct in the mid-1980s, with the share of beef failing from 43 to 33 percent). Given the predominance of the feedlot arrangement in the U.s. for producing bovine meat with high feedgrain conversion rates (5-vii kg of grain per kg of beef are the numbers usually given in the literature), it is easy to see why the shift to poultry has had such a pronounced impact on the average meat/grain ratios. Finally, productivity increases (reduction of the amount of feed required to produce 1 kg of meat), resulting from animal genetic improvements and better management, besides played a part, at to the lowest degree in the major industrial countries.

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^xx A recent study puts the problem as follows:«In 1964, half of all beef cows in the U.s. were on lots of fewer than 50 animals. Past 1996, nearly 90 percent of straight cattle feeding was occurring on lots of one 000 caput or more than, with some 300 lots averaging xvi 000-20 000 head and well-nigh 100 lots in backlog of 30 m head. These feedlots represent waste management challenges equal to minor cities, and most are regulated as point-source pollution sites under the authorization of the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA)» (Commission for Environmental Cooperation-NAFTA, 1999, p. 202).
²¹ According to its production and trade statistics, Mainland china's per capita meat consumption, resulting from the food balance sheets, was 45 kg in 1997/99. Contained consumption statistics prove per capita consumption of«pork, beef, mutton» for 1997 of 19.04 kg for urban residents and 12.72 kg for the rural ones (UNDP, 2000a). The food balance sheet data we use here show for 1997/99 36.5 kg for the same meats plus another 8.v kg for poultry meat. For a word of discrepancies encounter Feng Lu (1998); Fuller, Hayes and Smith (2000); and Colby, Zhong and Giordano (1998). It is indicative of the reservations with which the official product (and implied consumption) statistics are received past those concerned with earth trade in livestock products, feedgrains and soybeans, that in FAPRI's latest projection study the information for per capita consumption of meat in China accept been revised downwardly drastically, to 31.5 kg in 1997/99 (FAPRI, 2002, livestock tables).
²² In the latest FAPRI projections, the net, and growing, internet importer status of Taiwan Province of Mainland china continues to 2011 (FAPRI, 2002).

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